MANY years ago, before Vintage Crop changed everything in 1993, a popular system often found the winner of the race that stops a nation.
But Dermott Weld’s Irish raider, and subsequent overseas invaders, changed everything.
Within a matter of about three minutes and 23 seconds, the race that stops a nation became the race that stops the world.
A system made popular last century was a genuinely good guide to finding the Melbourne Cup winner.
There was a downside, however.
At times, there were often up to 10 selections when the 24 runners arrived at Flemington on that fabulous first Tuesday in November.
The upside in the modern era, is multiple selections can now be wagered multiple, affordable ways, using the TAB’s flexi-betting options.
Another factor making the pre-Vintage Crop Melbourne Cup system in need of tweaking, is the disgraceful rescheduling of two important lead-up races.
The weight-for-age LKS Mackinnon Stakes, once cheekily known as the “practice stakes”, was always held on the Saturday before the Melbourne Cup – VRC Derby Day.
Cindy Poulos with the 1920 Melbourne Cup won by Poitrel.
It is now held on the Saturday after the Melbourne Cup, so is therefore redundant in the scheme of things.
Incredibly, also redundant is the Hotham Handicap.
Up until this year, the Hotham – known in recent years as the Lexus and Dalgety – was programmed on Derby Day alongside the Mackinnon.
It now joins the Makybe Diva Stakes at the start of the spring carnival and has been rebranded The Archer.
The reason for bucking tradition and changing a formula that has worked for more than 150 years is known only to the allegedly erudite directors on the VRC board, sitting in their ivory tower high above Flemington.
There is one certainty out of all of this – Racing NSW supremo Peter V’Landys is clicking his heels all the way to the pay-out window as he promotes the Big Dance, Little Dance and Barn Dance at Royal Randwick’s corresponding meeting.
The three Sydney dances are collectively worth $4 million, and are taking the shine off the race that now slows a nation to a cursory glance at a television screen.
The old-school Melbourne Cup system tags winners and place-getters from several key lead-up races as well as winners and place-getters from the previous season’s AJC, QLD and VRC Derbies and Oaks.
The Makybe Diva Stakes, formerly known as the Craiglee Stakes, traditionally launches the Melbourne spring – and quite a few runners, regardless of where they finish in the Makybe Diva, do special things during the carnival.
Via Sistina franked the theory. After finishing unplaced in the Makybe Diva, she won the Turnbull Stake and WS Cox Plate, the latter by eight lengths in track record time – hard held and alone, as Banjo liked to say.
Moree Online News has tweaked the last-century cup system to suit the modern era and wagering systems.
The lead-up races used in the new system are the Makybe Diva Stakes (every runner), The Bart Cummings (first-four), Caulfield Cup (first-four), Turnbull Stakes (first-four), Moonee Valley Cup (first-four), WS Cox Plate (first-four), The Archer (first-four), Geelong Cup (first-three) and Bendigo Cup (first-three), held six days before the Melbourne Cup.
The place-getters from the previous season’s AJC, VRC and Queensland Derbies and Oaks are also included.
Add to the mix any previous Melbourne Cup winners and all fly-in, fly-out runners.
Since Vintage Crop made everyone think differently about the Melbourne Cup, the overseas raiders are now the X-factor.
In the 31 years since Vintage Crop saluted, nine fly-in, fly-out gallopers have snatched the race.
That’s an overseas Melbourne Cup winner nearly every four years, so odds and expectancy demand they be included.
Naturally, not all selections will be there on cup day.
All three-year-olds are eliminated as well as all entires and geldings aged seven years and older (bred to southern hemisphere times).
Mares six years and older are eliminated and horses carrying 1kg or more than standard WFA are also ruled out.
After the wash-up, betting strategies are devised using the remaining selections.
Flexi-betting provides many affordable options.
As a wise punter once said: 10 per cent of something is much better than 100 per cent of nothing.
After the elimination process, there are 12 runners remaining – half the field.
These are Zardozi, Kovalica, Buckaroo, Circle of Fire, Sharp ‘n’ Smart, Land Legend and Mostly Cloudy as well as overseas invaders Warp Speed, Sea King, Vauban, Absurde and Onesmoothoperator.
Moree Online News identifies Zardozi, Kovalica, Buckaroo, Onesmoothoperator and Circle of Fire as the top chances, and will “anchor” those runners accordingly.
A separate wager will “anchor” the five fly-in, fly-out runners – Warp Speed, Vauban, Absurde, Sea King and Onesmoothoperator.
Our Selections:
We believe the winner will come from Zardozi ($14), Kovalica ($21), Buckaroo ($6.50) or Onesmoothoperator ($8.50), with the best roughies being Circle of Fire ($41) and Sharp ‘n’ Smart ($51).
Our on-top selection: Zardozi ($14)
There was a lot to like about Zardozi’s closing fifth over an unsuitable 1600m at Flemington on Saturday. It’s good to see James Cummings take a leaf from grandfather Bart’s bible and start a Melbourne Cup runner on Derby Day. Eleven of Bart’s 12 Melbourne Cup winners ran at Flemington on Derby Day. Zardozi, a Victorian Oaks winner, is yet to win past 2500m but her runs in the Metrop in Sydney (second) and Caulfield Cup (fourth) had “two miles” written all over them. Her run on Saturday was a cracker.
Our back-up selection: Kovalica ($21)
Another runner untried at 3200m, but Kovalica is trained by a bloke by the name of Chris Waller. Kovalica, a Queensland Derby winner, has been placed to perfection by Waller, who has kept the five-year-old well-and-truly under the radar this preparation. Kovalica will run a huge race.
What are you really gambling with?
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